Services

Advisory and Consulting Services

I have a great deal of experience working with managers from more than 400 companies worldwide and this blog is, in large part, my attempt to share some of what I have learned from them. In particular, I have overseen a large number of predictive analytic and management consultancy-related projects. These have ranged from helping companies develop and use statistical models for understanding customer characteristics and demands, to credit scoring, to helping central banks implement regulatory initiatives, to assisting one of the world’s largest marble contractors in minimizing wastage.  Many of these references can be viewed on my profile here. Some selected case studies are detailed at the bottom of this page.

Training Services

I have designed, developed ad delivered more than 150 corporate education and training programs across more than 40 countries and 4 continents. Each program is tailored that that specific market or client and seeks to guide participants in the implementation of essential tools related to the subject matter–not textbook coverage. Moreover, each program is designed to address specific, practical challenges that participants are likely to face, particularly in emerging markets. Some of my more recent courses fall under the following topic areas:

Training for executives

Executive Use of Predictive Analytics in Emerging Markets
Analytics and Performance Measurement
Enterprise Risk Management
Using Analytics to Get Credit Products to Market
Executive and Board Risk Oversight
Risk and Leadership in Emerging Markets
Corporate Finance for Executives
Corporate Risk Management
Managing Emerging Market Exposure

Training for middle and senior managers

Identifying and Using Performance Metrics
Risk and Operations Performance and Management
Credit Scoring and Rating

Valuing Emerging Market Businesses
Basel Compliance
Decision Analytics and Product Support
Credit Exposures and Credit Risk Management
Managing Continuity
Validation and Testing of Analytical Decision Tools

Case study examples

Africa

 

  • (Current) I am currently guiding the development of predictive analytics and simultaneously developing the predictive analytics and scorecard for the world’s first mobile loan product
  • Developed, designed and implemented internal risk modeling architecture for the largest bank in West Africa. Reviewed market, credit and operational risk processes as well as internal audit functions. Devised plans for circumventing problems such as data limitations, illiquidities in the local market, regulatory uncertainty, among others.
  • Consulted the largest micro-lending institution in West Africa concerning scorecard development
  • Guided one of the largest banks in South Africa in the implementation of the risk component validation efforts as well as in the estimation of PDs for low default portfolios (LDPs).
  • Trained representatives of the 22 largest development banks in Africa in the use of quantitative scoring and scorecards for application to project and micro-financing

 

Asia

 

  • Worked with the Hong Kong Trade and Development Council to assist in preparing Chinese SOEs for public listing in Hong Kong after government bailout of State Banks
  • Assisted one of the largest banks in Indonesia to map scoring variable inputs to a pre-existing (commercial vendor) credit scoring model platform. Guided credit analysts in the calibration of these scoring models to the Indonesian landscape
  • Worked with an Asian central to devise an examination and review of validation results from banks that it oversees. Reviewed bank internal validation results to furnish expert opinion. Trained bank supervision personnel in how to detect manipulation of validation results as well as how to detect weaknesses and inconsistencies in the underlying scoring platform.
  • Trained representatives of 23 Indian financial institutions on behalf of the Central Bank for the purpose of assessing local IRB capabilities. Particular work for the central bank focused on training high-level personnel in risk-based-pricing methods as applied particular to the Indian financial landscape.

Eastern and Central Europe

 

  • Provided guidance in multiple engagements to two of the primary central banking authorities in Central Europe, focusing both on IRB implementation and Advanced Measurement Approaches. Devised plan for supervision of banks and testing of IRB and AMA frameworks. Also provided training of central bank supervisors to this effect.
  • Advised more than 20 Serbian, Brazilian (operating in Eastern Europe) and Russian institutions in (emergency) business continuity planning strategies
COUNTRY-SPECIFICALBANIA 

Clients

 

Banka Kombetare Tregtare (BKT) (Credit Risks Department)

Projects

 

  • Credit Risk Model development: Trained key risk management staff in the development of credit scoring and rating techniques—i.e., creation of scorecards, development of statistical scoring models, specification of ratings grades and quantitative mapping of scores to ratings. Addressed concerns related to bank assessment of the local Albanian market. Illustrated techniques for the evaluation of credits when information is incomplete and unreliable.
  • Validation and backtesting of credit models: Provided training guidance for implementation of Basel II-compliant validation and backtesting methods aimed at scoring models and risk component frameworks with application to difficulties in the Albanian market.
BULGARIAClients

Corporate Commercial Bank, AD (Risk Control division), First Investment Bank (Credit policy, analysis and risk division; Methodology Division)

 

Projects

  • Credit Risk Modeling and Best-Practice:
    • Provided credit risk modeling guidance in the adoption of internal scoring platforms along with conversions from qualitative scorecard approaches to quantitative, statistical scoring model approaches. Guided application of control setting and audit functioning for credit risk management. Furnished templates for the development of credit assessment systems when market collateral values are indeterminant.
  • Credit Model Validation and Backtesting
    • Established internal outline of validation and backtesting of credit models for individual retail and portfolio applications. Provided policy-setting tools for the drafting of an internal, credit policy manual. Helped resolved difficulties in credit assessment of unaudited companies.
GEORGIAClientsBank of Georgia (Deputy General Director)

Projects

  • Credit Risk Assessment and Modeling:
  • Provided training related to credit assessment and quantitative, internal model development for eventual Basel II compliance (not yet required for Georgia). Illustrated scoring model and risk component estimation technique development with application to Georgian entities. Provided guidance in database enhancement and development when data are poor in quality.

 
GREECEAgricultural Bank of Greece (ATE), SA (Credit risk management, Internal audit), Alpha Bank (Risk Management), Bank of Greece (Risk management), EFG Eurobank Ergasias, S.A (Risk Management), National Bank of Greece (Treasury), Hellenic Bank, Ltd (Credit Risk supervision), Teiresias SA (Data analysis), Piraeus Bank (Risk Management) 

  • Internal Credit Modeling and Credit Assessment: Developed internal program for a large Athens-based institution wanting to develop Basel II compliant scoring models for retail, mortgage and shipping (trade credits) areas. Tailored analytical scoring models for two portfolio segments and provided implementation guidance for overall Basel II compliance program.
  • Risk Management Audit and Validation: Guided risk management and internal audit functions of major institutions in the process of challenging and testing internally- developed and vendor-developed scoring and rating models. Created platform and checklist of audit concern areas and mapping for control functions.
  • Risk Management Implementation: Trained several groups of bank staff in three, broad risk areas: credit, market and operational risk. Provided particular focus on credit risk assessment and approval when the quality of borrower information is poor and collateral market values are difficult to determine.
KAZAKHSTANClientsHalyk Savings Bank (Operational Risk management, Risk Management Department)

 

Project

 

  • Operational Risk Modeling, Measurement and Management
    • Trained senior staff in the overall operational risk guidelines of Basel II and in the implementation of the internal operational risk measurement and management methodologies.Helped resolve queries related to modeling operational events using local event data and to develop scenarios relevant to the Kazakhstan market.

 
ROMANIAClientsBancPost (Project management), STFB Transfond SA (Risk management), Raiffeisen Bank (Risk and Credit Management; Risk division; Asset and Liability Management division; Treasury unit), Banca Comerciala Romania (Retail Risk Management), CFR Calatori (Control division)

 

Projects (Romania)

 

  • Internal Credit Risk Modeling
    • Provided senior management guidance on the development of internal credit modeling architecture: scoring, risk components and ratings. Establishment of methodology for data collection and database development. Exposited validation and testing procedures applicable for a Romanian database.
  • Operational Risk Management and Modeling
    • Trained senior staff in Basel II compliance regarding the Standardized Approach (TSA) and Advanced Measurement (internal modeling) Approach (AMA). Offered guidance in the transition from TSA to AMA and created a risk matrix mapping template. Developed a scenario-testing model for relating business environment and internal control factors (BEICFs) to Romanian tail loss data.
  • Asset and Liability Management quantification
    • Introduced senior ALCO member to Asset and Liability (ALM) models for interest rate margin forecasting. Provided asset and liability management models for scenario analysis and net interest margin forecasting. Offered guidance in the selection of ALM software suitable for the Romanian market.

 
RUSSIABank Center-Invest (Risk Monitoring and Control), Espro Properties (Risk Analysis), Gasprom Bank (Risk Analysis and Control), Ernst & Young (Assurance services; Financial Services), Russian Commercial Bank (Risk Management), KMB Bank (Chief Risk Office), KPMG (Securitization and corporate finance), Macromir (Risk Management), Bank of Moscow (Risk management analytics), International Investment Bank (Risk management), International Moscow Bank (Risk Management, Risk Controlling), MDM Bank: Credit Risk Management), Moody’s Eastern Europe (Investor services), Promsvyazbank (Credit Risk Management), Raiffeisen Bank (Portfolio risk modeling; Risk Analysis),  Sberbank (Savings Bank of the Russian Federation, Asset/Liability Division), Troika Dialog (Credit Risk management), Unicredit (Risk management), Vneshtorgbank (Summary Analytics Unit; Risk Analysis; Risk Management), ZAO Interros Holding Company (Risk analysis department)Projects 

  • SME Credit Scoring and Rating Model development
    • Trained key risk management staff in the development and testing of SME scoring models.Established platform for the creation of SME scoring policy cards and analytics.Developed and outlined methodology for transition from qualitative, policy scorecards to quantitative, statistical scorecards.Created SME risk pooling criteria designed for Russian market.
  • Credit Exposures modeling
    • Developed methodology for the assessment of credit exposure on performing and non-performing project finance and SME exposures.Devised material conditioning for collateral assessment and recovery—developed collateral pricing techniques.Trained analysts in evaluating and modeling various credit exposure types in the midst of poor performance, accounting and security data.
  • Operational Risk Management
    • Guided client through the process of providing greater risk management transparency for the sake of their initial public offering. Established criteria for developing a dialog mechanism with shareholders, analysts and media.Trained analysts in tail loss measurement and database development.Drafted a template for the categorization of loss events and feed of event data to risk modeling platform.
  • Distressed Loan Portfolio Evaluation
    • Developed implementation platform for the assessment of distressed loan portfolios within an existing internal credit scoring and rating framework.Devised techniques for treatment of problem (non-performing) Black Sea exposures with dubious collateral values.Developed mechanism for internal probability of default migrations assessment.
  • Credit Model Validation and Basel Preparation
    • Provided risk model backtesting and validation architecture for institution with overseas subsidiaries subject to Basel II compliance with outline of impending implementation hurdles.

 
 

TURKEY

 

Clients

 

Akbank (Retail credits, Credit Risk management), C-Bank (Financial Control), ddMortgage (Credit Risk Unit), Denizbank/Dexia (Risk Systems SVP), Egeli & Co. (Control and litigation), Finansbank (Risk management, Treasury, Analytics and Scoring Group), Finar/Dunn & Bradstreet (Risk management solutions), Turk Ekonomi Bankasi (TEB) (Credit Products Allocation & Analysis), Turkiye Is Bankasi (Internal audit and board of inspectors, Financial analysis, Group Management, Risk Management and modeling, Head Office), Garanti Bank (Risk Management department, Credit Risk assistant vice president, Internal Audit, Credit policy), HSM Construction Trade and tourism (Treasury), Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry of the Undersecretariat of Treasury (Public Finance), Sekerbank (Control and audit), WestLB (Finance and Accounts), YapiKredi/Unicredit (SME Credit Underwriting)

Projects

  • Credit Risk Audit and Assessment: Retained to evaluate the credit risk management and modeling operations with an aim to assuring Basel II compliance. Trained and advised clients in the necessary components of an advanced, Internal Ratings Based (IRB) system, subject to the Turkish central bank’s guidelines.
  • SME scorecard and ratings system creation: Developed SME scoring platform applicable for Turkish entities with definition of euro-equivalent 250.000 classification limit. Creation of “policy” scorecards for application against entities that have limited credit histories and dubious financial statements.
  • Credit Model Validation and Testing: Trained key analytical personnel at several institutions in the testing and backtesting of credit risk models, ratings systems and risk component estimates. Illustrated key issues related to the development of databases for eventual advanced Basel II compliance and formal backtesting programs.
  • Risk Management Implementation: Trained senior staff at several institutions in the design and implementation of effective, integrated, risk management systems to incorporate market, credit and operational risk concerns. Provided comprehensive, practical approach for estimating integrated tail loss.
  • Operational Risk Management: Provided training in the development of AMA systems that address Turkish event database quality difficulties, such as the lack of history, poorly recorded and documented events and missing values. Provided practical guidance in operational risk management implementation of models prescribed by Basel.
  • Asset and Liability Management: Guided efforts to implement ALM software and techniques for forecasting net interest income movements as well as P/L reconciliation. Provided structure for the creation of an ALM scenario-based analysis sub-committee of ALCO.

 
UKRAINEClientsAlfabank (Risk management), Eurofinance (Operations), Raiffeisen Bank (Audit and control, Deputy general auditor, Analytical Systems), UKRSIBBANK (Retail Credit supports), Concern Stirol (Information research)Projects

 

  • Internal Model Validation: Trained senior analysts and credit officers in the development of an internal model validation system. Guided internal auditors in the techniques of examining and challenging credit risk models and ratings. Developed template for extracting and managing Ukrainian data replete with missing values owing to poor financial statements and collateral verification difficulties.
  • SME Scorecard development: Retained to develop a scorecard mechanism relevant for the Ukrainian SME market. Created qualitative “policy” scorecard for application to entities when credit history is limited (or non-existent) and financials difficult or impossible to verify. Developed rating system for security and collateral type based upon Eastern European market norms.

 

 

Middle East

 

  • Assisted one of the primary central banking authorities in the Gulf region in deciding whether to allow banks to follow Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approaches. Performed market analysis and analyses of bank capabilities across more than 30 institutions.
  • Developed and devised implementation plan for an Audit Authority to review Basel II efforts taken by subsidiary financial institutions—particularly fund managers. Provided training and consultation on nuances of risk management audit.

Western Europe

 

  • Extensive risk management audit of Advanced IRB implementation one of the largest building societies in the UK. Assessed data and model building, testing and calibration capabilities. Devised and implemented Advanced and Foundation IRB application plans.
  • Guided one of the world’s largest banks (based in the UK) in the implementation of the Basel Advanced Measurement Approach
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